Forbes Magazine Discusses Democracy Institute Polls
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Forbes Magazine Discusses Democracy Institute Polls

7 October 2020

Why Secret Trump Voters Are The Crucial Bet For Shifting Election Odds

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After the party conventions, President Donald Trump’s odds of winning re-election peaked at 48% on online sportsbook Bovada. After the Supreme Court vacancy, first debate smackdown, and then Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Joe Biden’s betting odds rose by over 10 points. Meanwhile, polls continue to be all over the place – due, perhaps, to the strong possibility that a significant part of the electorate won’t discuss their vote.

“Odds for Biden actually spiked after Tuesday night’s debate,” according to VegasElectionOdds.com, “primarily on the strength that he didn’t actually keel over at the podium on live television. Biden, it must be said, handled the fight against Trump better than most expected.”

Once Trump was diagnosed with COVID and admitted to Walter Reed Military Hospital, all bets were off – literally. “We suspended all betting Friday when he was admitted,” Bovada political oddsmaker Pat Morrow told me. “We resumed wagering around 4 pm this afternoon” – that was Monday, as Trump returned to the White House – “with Biden -175, Trump +145 – roughly Biden 61%/Trump 39%.”

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