The Final DI-Sunday Express US Poll is Published
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The Final DI-Sunday Express US Poll is Published

Poll: Donald Trump set to win US presidency by electoral college landslide.

DONALD TRUMP is on course to win four more years in the White House with a one point lead in the popular win, the final Democracy Institute poll for the Sunday Express has found.
The original story is on the Sunday Express
By DAVID MADDOX, SUNDAY EXPRESS POLITICAL EDITOR
PUBLISHED: 00:03, Sun, Nov 1, 2020 | UPDATED: 12:58, Sun, Nov 1, 2020

Donald Trump casts his US election vote in Florida

The survey of voters by the US President’s favourite pollsters gives him 48 percent ahead of his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent.

In the last days of the campaign the Democrat former vice president who has been dogged by corruption allegations surrounding his son Hunter which have, according to the poll, cut through with the electorate.

Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory since March.

This is because unlike other polls it only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.

According to this latest poll almost eight in ten (79 percent) of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends and family compared to 21 percent of Biden supporters.

With the race hotting up in the final days allegations that Mr Biden and his family are corrupt surrounding claims about his son Hunter’s business dealings with China and the Ukraine using family connections appear to have had cut through.

There was controversy when social media platforms including Twitter apparently attempted to filter out the stories surrounding Hunter Biden published by the New York Post.

But the row has, according to the poll, only helped to put the issue in the public consciousness more.

Asked who they thought was telling the truth about the Biden family allegations 57 percent chose businessman and former Biden associate Tony Bobulinski who has levelled accusations against the former vice President.

Meanwhile, 52 percent agreed that Mr Biden is “a corrupt politician” with 21 percent saying they are less likely to vote for him and 75 percent saying it makes no difference.

Asked if the allegations made him a national security risk, 54 percent agreed that it did.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate

The US President’s job approval rating it now at 52 percent which, according to the Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham, is now at “normal levels” to expect to be reelected.

And even after the Black Lives Matter protests, almost four in ten black voters approve of his presidency and 21 percent are prepared to vote for him.

Mr Trump’s two strongest issues among voters are still ranked the most important – the economy and law and order – both at 29 percent.

In comparison coronavirus, where the President’s approval rating is not as high, is fourth on 20 percent as the most important issue.

According to the findings 61 percent think Mr Trump will be better for the economy but only 45 percent approve of his handling of coronavirus while 49 percent disapprove.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden still comes a distant third when asked about who has had the most positive impact on the criminal justice system with 14 percent behind both Mr Trump and the celebrity Kim Kardashian both on 43 percent.

Donald Trump

Mr Basham said: “Our final Democracy Institute poll shows President Donald Trump, the Republican standard bearer, holding a razor thin one-point national lead over his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. This is a statistical tie that falls firmly within the poll’s margin of error.

“The election will not be decided by the popular vote, of course; instead, it will be decided within the battleground states located primarily in the nation’s Midwest and Sunbelt regions.

“The Republican’s vote is a very efficient one, as it was in 2016. This is the president’s Trump card.

“Trump’s voters are more evenly dispersed across the country than are Biden’s.

“Biden’s comparatively inefficient vote is likely to mirror Hillary Clinton’s from four years ago. Biden will do incredibly well in the heavily populated states of California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. In these states, and in others reliably painted a deep Democratic blue, he will rack up enormous margins of victory over Trump, providing him with the potential to score a national popular vote victory, yet probably depriving him of sufficient votes in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida to turn Trump into a one-term president.”

Poll results in full

National Popular Vote

Trump (Republican) = 48%

Biden (Democrat) = 47%

Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

Hawkins (Green) = 1%

Undecided = 2%

White voters: Trump = 53% Biden = 45%

Black: Trump 19% Biden = 80%

Hispanic: Trump 40% Biden = 50%

Battleground States – Popular Vote

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Trump (Republican) = 49%

Biden (Democrat) = 45%

Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

Hawkins (Green) = 1%

Undecided = 3%

Florida – Popular Vote

Trump (Republican) = 49%

Biden (Democrat) = 45%

Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

Hawkins (Green) = 1%

Undecided = 3%

Minnesota – Popular Vote

Trump (Republican) = 48%

Biden (Democrat) = 46%

Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

Hawkins (Green) = 2%

Undecided = 2%

New Hampshire – Popular Vote

Trump (Republican) = 47%

Biden (Democrat) = 43%

Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 5%

Hawkins (Green) = 2%

Undecided = 3%

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrors these poll results)

270 needed to win

Trump = 326 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada]

Biden = 212

Biden Family Corruption

Q “Who do you believe is telling the truth about alleged Biden family corruption?”

Joe Biden = 43%

Tony Bobulinski = 57%

Q “Does alleged Biden family corruption make you more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden for president?”

More likely = 4%

Less likely = 21%

No difference = 75%

Q “Is Joe Biden a corrupt politician?”

Yes = 52%

No = 44%

Q “In light of alleged Biden family corruption, do you consider Joe Biden a national security threat?”

Yes = 54%

No = 46%

Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

Trump voters = 86%

Biden voters = 52%

Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?”

Trump voters: positive vote = 89%; negative vote = 11%

Biden voters: positive vote = 43%; negative vote = 57%

Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”

Trump voters: Yes = 1%

Biden voters: Yes = 3%

‘Shy’ Trump Vote?

Questions to Undecided Voters

Q “Does a relative, friend, or coworker plan to vote for Trump?”

Yes = 79%

No = 21%

Q “Will President Trump be reelected?”

Yes = 62%

No = 38%

Q “Which candidate won the second presidential debate?”

Trump = 59%

Biden = 41%

Questions to All Voters

Q “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”

Trump voters: Yes = 22%

Biden voters: Yes = 90%

Debate

Q “Which candidate won the second presidential debate?”

Trump = 43%

Biden = 27%

Draw = 30%

Q “Did the second presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Trump/Biden?”

Trump = 15%

Biden = 3%

No difference = 82%

Trump’s National Job Approval

Approve = 52%

Disapprove = 48%

Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval

Republican = 93%

Democrat = 25%

Independent = 51%

Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval

White = 57%

Black = 38%

Hispanic = 46%

Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval

Men = 54%

Women = 48%

Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval

Evangelical = 91%

Protestant = 60%

Catholic = 68%

Jewish = 31%

Atheist = 7%

Age – Trump’s National Job Approval

65 years & over = 59%

45-64 years = 67%

30-44 years = 45%

18-29 years = 34%

Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval

Married 64%

Single 29%

Policy

Q “Which issue is most important to you?”

Law & order/riots/violence = 29%

Economy/jobs = 29%

Education = 16%

Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 20%

Immigration = 6%

Economy

Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”

Yes = 73%

No = 27%

Q “Who do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”

Trump = 61%

Biden = 39%

Pandemic

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”

Approve = 45%

Disapprove = 49%

Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”

Trump = 72%

Biden = 28%

Education

Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?”

Yes = 69%

No = 31%

Race

Black Lives Matter

Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”

Black Lives Matter = 23%

All Lives Matter = 77%

Policing / Law & Order

Q “Which one of these people has had the most positive impact on criminal justice policy, especially reforms disproportionately affecting African Americans?”

Donald Trump = 43%

Kim Kardashian = 43%

Joe Biden = 14%

Q “Do this week’s violent protests in Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Washington DC make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?”

More likely = 20%

Less likely = 11%

Makes no difference = 69%

Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”

Too tough 25%

Just right 30%

Not tough enough 45%

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”

Approve = 63%

Disapprove = 37%

Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”

Yes = 31%

No = 69%

Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”

Law & order = 74%

Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%

Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”

Yes = 17%

No = 78%

Candidate Characteristics

Biden’s Mental Acuity

Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”

Yes = 45%

No = 49%

Don’t know = 6%

Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

More likely = 15%

Less likely = 30%

No difference = 55%

Leadership

Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”

Trump = 73%

Biden = 26%

Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?”

Trump = 22%

Biden = 59%

Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”

Yes = 81%

No = 19%

Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?”

Yes = 67%

No = 33%

Personal Traits

Q “Is Trump/Biden too old to be president?”

Trump = 30%

Biden = 65%

Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”

Trump = 30%

Biden = 51%

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