Spectator magazine covers the new Democracy InstituteSunday Express poll
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Spectator magazine covers the new Democracy InstituteSunday Express poll

3 August 2020
Freddy Gray
The Spectator magazine covers the new Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll
Have we passed peak Biden?
The public are now focused principally on the economy — which is good news for Trump

A consensus has formed about this presidential election: it is Joe Biden’s to lose. As long as his vice-presidential nomination doesn’t backfire, or he does not spectacularly bungle the debates, the soon-to-be-confirmed Democratic nominee will be in the White House by the end of January. Just look at the polls.

Well, do look at the polls, and you’ll notice that Biden is losing ground. He’s still ahead, and comfortably, but the race narrowed in July, just as the media started to discuss a Biden presidency as if it were a fait accompli. Trump’s job approval rating is rising slightly, too, from 41 percent on June 29 to almost 44 percent today, according to the RealClearPolitics tracker. The overall trends still suggest that Donald Trump will be a one-term president, but there’s a discernible rumbling of discontent in the nation as Joe Biden strides towards power. In swing states such as Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin, Trump’s numbers are improving.

We may have already passed peak Biden — a troubling thought for Democratic strategists as the race enters its most intense and demanding period. It’s widely expected that Biden will lose more ground as November approaches; both because his public performances will be doddery and because Trump’s 2016 campaign made remarkable gains in the weeks before election day and could well do so again.
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