US Election 2020 Donald Trump Joe Biden Democracy Institute Poll
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US Election 2020 Donald Trump Joe Biden Democracy Institute Poll

TRUMP VICTORY now odds on says Pollster as quiet Americans cut through Democrat noise

By PATRICK BASHAM, DIRECTOR OF THE DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE
PUBLISHED: 00:01, Sun, Nov 1, 2020 | UPDATED: 07:09, Sun, Nov 1, 2020
Story posted on Express

A MERE 48 hours until Election Day, American voters are poised to reelect a Republican despised by the half of the country that does not vote red. In doing so, they will reject the establishment choice, a Democrat most view as the corrupt face of politically blue America.

Our final Democracy Institute poll shows President Donald Trump, the Republican standard bearer, holding a razor thin one-point national lead over his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. This is a statistical tie that falls firmly within the poll’s margin of error. The election will not be decided by the popular vote, of course; instead, it will be decided within the battleground states located primarily in the nation’s Midwest and Sunbelt regions. The Republican’s vote is a very efficient one, as it was in 2016. This is the president’s trump card.

Trump’s voters are more evenly dispersed across the country than are Biden’s.

Nevertheless, there are probably enough of them in the “right” (electorally advantageous) locations throughout the battlegrounds to provide him with the lion’s share of those electoral college votes, which would provide a comfortable margin of victory.

Biden’s comparatively inefficient vote is likely to mirror Hillary Clinton’s from four years ago. Biden will do incredibly well in the heavily populated states of California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York.

In these states, and in others reliably painted a deep Democratic blue, he will rack up enormous margins of victory over Trump, providing him with the potential to score a national popular vote victory, yet probably depriving him of sufficient votes in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida to turn Trump into a one-term president.

While an electoral college victory is all that matters, our poll stands alone in consistently forecasting a popular vote victory, albeit a narrow one, for Trump.

Such is the size of the Shy Trump Vote; and so successful has the Trump campaign been at identifying and mobilising previously non-voting rural White males – and persuading increasing numbers of Black and Hispanic Americans to support their candidate – we will not be surprised to see Trump eke out the popular vote by as little as, and perhaps less than, one percent.

Should Trump narrowly lose the popular vote, it may reflect the ability of many notorious state- and local-level Democratic party machines to inflate the vote totals for their candidate.

Voter fraud, especially within the large postal vote, is a threat to Trump’s probable victories across the battleground states.

For example, Trump needs to win the pivotal state of Pennsylvania by at least a couple of points because the Democratic machine in Philadelphia is well-equipped to erase an overnight Trump lead of one point or less.

Our final projection includes our new forecast that, once the desert dust has settled across Nevada, the southwestern state’s six electoral votes, won by Clinton last time, will this time end up in Trump’s column.

However, given Nevada’s lax rules regarding the late arrival of postal votes, an apparent Trump win on election night could easily be massaged into a loss.

The albatross around Trump’s political neck remains the intense dislike, often manifested as actual hatred, of the president that is experienced by roughly one in two voters. The overwhelming majority of Biden voters consistently tell us that their vote for Biden is really a vote against Trump. In striking contrast, only a small minority of Trump voters are actually voting against Biden.

The past 10 days presented the Biden campaign with a new and formidable challenge.

Despite the concerted efforts of most of the print, broadcast, and social media worlds, a majority of voters are now aware of the allegations of corruption swirling around Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

The principal allegation is that, both as Vice President and after he left office, Biden served as the de facto head of a family-based fundraising scheme that exchanged eye-watering sums of money from foreign companies and governments, including communist China, for access to Biden the policymaker and influencer. The enormous profits were allegedly divvied up between Biden and other family members.

Such is the incriminating evidence provided by Hunter’s so-called “laptop from hell,” and such is the authenticity of the documentation provided by Tony Bobulinski, Hunter’s former business partner, that far more voters believe Bobulinski’s version of events than believe Joe Biden’s denials of malfeasance.

As a result of the persuasive nature of these allegations, a majority of voters now consider Biden a corrupt politician who poses a national security threat to America.

The bottom line is we find this corruption scandal leading some Democrats to consider not voting altogether, while further inflaming Trump voters’ passion for their own candidate. By a five to one margin, voters overall are less inclined to support Biden due to these revelations.

These final numbers cement our poll’s status as an outlier amidst a pandemic-long sea of polls forecasting a clear Biden victory on Tuesday. We look at the postal vote figures and early in-person voting data and note behavioural evidence suggesting that we may be the nearest the mark.

Biden campaign strategists around the country are worried this weekend because they also see what we see: a Democratic turnout that is markedly underperforming among Black and Hispanic voters, especially in the crucial swing states.

We expect a disappointing minority voter turnout nationally for Democrats, which we have documented for six months, to be a harbinger of bad things for Biden’s candidacy. It may also be the first of two perverse ironies of this presidential election.

The first is that a victorious Trump will owe his reelection in no small part to so many Black and Hispanic voters’ rejection of the Democrats’ woke, racially and culturally supersensitive, politically correct approach to civil rights, policing, and economic empowerment.

The second is that for four years Donald Trump was accused of, and investigated for, all manner of alleged evil acts and supposed political shenanigans. Yet, he may defeat Joe Biden in no small part because most voters now consider Biden to be the truly corrupt one.

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